Not much happened over the weekend for crypto. Bitcoin came back above $64,000 anyway. Now the focus shifts to Thursday and what inflation data says about where rates are heading.
Bitcoin Moved Up Quietly Monday Morning
Bitcoin was trading near $64,500 early Monday. That is about 0.9% higher than Friday’s close. Calm move. Nothing dramatic. Just a steady recovery after a week that had a lot of noise in it.
Rest of crypto followed along modestly. Ether added 0.5% sitting around $1,734. Solana rose 1.5% to $73. Small gains across the board. Not the kind of session that gets anyone too excited but after last week’s volatility steady is actually welcome.
$60,000 support level is still holding. Bitcoin dipped toward that zone last week and buyers showed up. That floor has now been tested a couple of times and has not broken. As long as it holds the recovery narrative stays intact.
Switzerland Talks Did Not Deliver What Markets Wanted
Weekend news was dominated by the US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland. Vice President JD Vance was among the officials involved. Markets had been hoping for a concrete agreement to come out of those talks.
Did not happen. Negotiators agreed to work toward a final deal within 60 days and discussed ways to reduce regional tensions. Progress compared to active conflict. But not the signed agreement traders were pricing in when optimism was running high earlier last week.
Bitcoin barely reacted to the Switzerland outcome. It had already rallied on peace optimism earlier in the week, sold off when that optimism faded Friday, and spent the weekend doing very little. Traders are in wait and see mode now rather than chasing headlines about talks that keep getting delayed.
PCE Thursday Is the Real Test
Biggest event this week for Bitcoin and for markets broadly is Thursday’s PCE report. Personal Consumption Expenditures index is the number the Federal Reserve pays most attention to when thinking about inflation and interest rates.
Last week’s Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh came across as hawkish. Rate hike expectations moved forward. Markets are now pricing in a possible increase by October. That shift in expectations is still sitting over risk assets including crypto.
Higher interest rates are generally bad for Bitcoin. They drain liquidity from the system and make risk assets less attractive compared to bonds and cash that are paying real yields. When rate hike probability goes up Bitcoin tends to feel it.
If Thursday’s PCE comes in hotter than expected it adds more fuel to the rate hike story. That would make it harder for Bitcoin to push toward the next resistance zone around $68,000. If PCE comes in cooler than expected it takes some pressure off. Rate hike timeline gets pushed back. Risk assets get room to breathe.
Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here
Two scenarios dominating the conversation right now.
Bull case is that $60,000 holds as a floor, PCE data comes in manageable, Iran situation stabilizes enough over the next 60 days, and Bitcoin builds toward testing $68,000. That level is where sellers showed up last time and it would be the next meaningful test of how much conviction buyers actually have.
Bear case is that PCE surprises to the upside, rate hike expectations get pulled even further forward, dollar strengthens more, and $60,000 gets tested again with more force this time. A second serious test of that support level would make traders nervous in a way the first test did not.
Monday morning points toward the bull case with prices holding above $64,000. But Thursday’s number is what actually decides which direction gets confirmed. Until then Bitcoin is in a holding pattern and traders know it.