Record deliveries in Q2. Stock still 25% below its high. Earnings Wednesday after the close. Three things investors will be watching and only one of them is about how many cars got sold.
Tesla Stock Trades 25% Below Its High Ahead of Tesla Earnings
Tesla is hovering around $380 heading into Wednesday. Down about 25% from its record near $500. Trading below the 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day moving averages. All three stacked overhead which is the kind of technical setup that makes chart watchers uncomfortable.
Stock has been losing ground steadily without a clear catalyst to reverse it. Broader tech weakness hurt. Musk’s attention being split across Tesla, SpaceX, and various other ventures is an ongoing concern for some investors. And a 349 times earnings valuation is hard to defend in a market that has been questioning AI and growth stock prices aggressively over the past few weeks.
Earnings Wednesday could change all of that or make it worse. High stakes report in a week where Alphabet is also on the calendar.
Tesla Deliveries Hit a Record Ahead of Tesla Earnings Report
Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2. Record quarter. Well above the roughly 403,000 analysts had modeled. Previous delivery record also broken.
That part is not in dispute. Tesla moved a lot of cars last quarter.
The question Wednesday answers is whether those deliveries were profitable. Revenue expected around $26 billion. Earnings per share consensus between $0.52 and $0.54. Those are the headline numbers but they are not what will actually move the stock.
Tesla Earnings Revenue and Margins Will Be Closely Watched
Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits is the specific number investors and analysts focus on most. That figure strips out one time benefits from selling emissions credits to other automakers and shows how much money Tesla actually makes on each vehicle from its own operations.
Analysts want to see that margin hold at or above roughly 12.5% matching last quarter. If Tesla delivered record volume while maintaining or improving that number it suggests the company was not just cutting prices aggressively to hit the delivery record. Discounts and incentives can inflate unit sales while gutting profitability. Margin holding at 12.5% plus would suggest Tesla avoided that trap.
Tesla has spent years being valued like a technology company not a traditional automaker. Technology companies trade on future earnings potential and growth trajectory. Automakers trade on current profitability and volume. Tesla needs to keep delivering the technology company story which means showing margins that improve over time not just raw sales numbers.
Tesla Robotaxi Progress Could Justify Its Premium Valuation
349 times earnings is an extraordinary multiple for any company. At that valuation investors are not buying Tesla the car manufacturer. They are buying a bet on Tesla becoming something much larger. Autonomous vehicles. Robotaxi network. AI and software revenue at scale.
Meaningful updates on robotaxi progress on Wednesday’s call could help justify paying 349 times earnings. Concrete timelines. Real deployment data. Revenue starting to show up from autonomous services. Any of that gives bulls a foundation to stand on.
Vague promises about autonomous driving have been part of Tesla’s story for years. Market is increasingly asking for specifics rather than ambition. If the Wednesday update sounds like the same general optimism without concrete milestones the valuation concern gets harder to dismiss.
Three Things Investors Should Watch During the Tesla Earnings Call
First is margins. 12.5% or above on automotive gross margin shows profitability is holding despite record volume. Below that raises questions about whether Tesla sacrificed margin to hit the delivery number.
Second is revenue against the $26 billion consensus. Beat with good margins is a strong result. Miss even with good deliveries creates confusion about pricing and product mix.
Third is robotaxi. Any tangible progress on commercial deployment or concrete timeline beyond what has already been discussed publicly gives investors something new to price in.
Hit all three and the stock probably has a strong session Thursday. Miss one or more and the downtrend that has pushed Tesla 25% off its high gets a reason to continue. Musk’s production has always been as important as the product. Wednesday is one of those moments where the story either gets stronger or shakier.