Big index milestone for SpaceX this week. Usually that kind of news moves a stock. This time it barely did anything. After the last two weeks that reaction makes a lot of sense.
Nasdaq 100 Addition Did Not Move the Needle Much
SpaceX is officially joining the Nasdaq 100 on July 7. That is a meaningful milestone for any stock. Index inclusion typically forces ETFs and mutual funds that track the index to buy shares automatically. That kind of mechanical buying usually gives the stock a visible boost in the days leading up to the addition date.
Not this time. Stock was up about 1% pre-market Monday. That is it. For a company that was moving 20% per day just two weeks ago a 1% pre-market bump barely registers.
Friday’s session told the same story. Shares swung close to the first day opening price before recovering late to close at $153.23. Up just 23 cents on the day. After the wildest IPO debut most traders had seen in years the stock is now moving in cents not percentages.
Weekly picture was much worse. SpaceX finished down 17% over the past five sessions. Post IPO euphoria has clearly faded. Traders who were buying anything SpaceX related without much analysis a week ago are being more careful now.
Passive Money Is Still Coming Though
Index inclusion matters even if the immediate reaction was quiet. ETFs and mutual funds that track the Nasdaq 100 are required to hold the stock once it joins. They do not get to choose. They have to buy.
JPMorgan estimates that SpaceX’s addition to the Nasdaq 100 could bring in roughly $4.3 billion in passive investment flows. That money does not care about valuation or earnings or Musk’s revenue projections. It buys because the index says to buy.
Whether that creates real lasting support for the stock or just a temporary bump around the July 7 date is the open question. Passive inflows can move prices but they do not change fundamentals. Long term holders need more than index mechanics to stay convinced.
Nasdaq has also made it easier for newer companies to join benchmark indexes in recent years. Requirements around profitability, trading history, and public float have been relaxed. That allowed SpaceX to qualify so quickly after its IPO even though it is still reporting losses.
S&P 500 Is a Different Story
One thing SpaceX cannot get yet is S&P 500 inclusion. S&P Global requires a company to have traded publicly for at least 12 months before being considered. SpaceX has been public for less than three weeks.
That matters because S&P 500 index funds are far larger than Nasdaq 100 funds in terms of total assets. The passive inflows from S&P 500 inclusion would dwarf the $4.3 billion JPMorgan is estimating for the Nasdaq 100 addition. That bigger catalyst is at minimum a year away.
OpenAI Is Reconsidering Its Timeline
SpaceX’s experience appears to be influencing decisions at other major private companies eyeing public markets. According to a New York Times report OpenAI is considering delaying its own IPO until next year.
The reasoning is pretty clear. OpenAI watched SpaceX go public at a record valuation, shoot up 40% in a few days, then give back most of those gains in the following week. That kind of volatility is not exactly an advertisement for going public at a massive valuation in the current environment.
If you are OpenAI and you are planning a potentially huge listing you probably want to see a more settled market before putting your stock in front of retail and institutional investors who just watched SpaceX’s rollercoaster play out in real time. Waiting until next year gives more time for the market to digest what happened with SpaceX and for sentiment around big AI valuations to stabilize.
Where Does SpaceX Go From Here
Stock is sitting near its first day opening price. Nasdaq 100 inclusion is coming July 7 and brings automatic buying with it. But the broader questions have not been answered.
Company is still losing money. Revenue is growing but not at the pace the $225 peak price was implying. Musk’s $1 trillion revenue by 2030 target is still just a target. And the market just spent two weeks demonstrating that enthusiasm alone cannot hold up a $3 trillion valuation without some fundamental support underneath it.
Meme stock. Growth stock. Future blue chip. The market has not decided yet. Nasdaq 100 inclusion is a real milestone. But investors right now seem more interested in seeing stable earnings and a less chaotic chart before committing serious money again.
July 7 will be a small test. How the stock trades around the actual inclusion date will give some clues about whether the passive inflows create lasting demand or just a short term blip that fades just as quickly as the IPO pop did.