SpaceX stock price briefly fell to $132.15 during Wednesday’s session before recovering above its $135 IPO price by the close.
It touched $132.15 during Wednesday’s session. That is below the $135 IPO price the company listed at last month. Briefly. Recovered by the close to finish at $135.27. Technically above IPO price at the end of the day but the psychological milestone of trading under it was crossed.
Down 40% from the $225 peak hit shortly after listing. $1 trillion plus in market value gone from that high to Wednesday’s intraday low. Numbers that would be extraordinary for any other company. For SpaceX they are just the latest chapter in one of the most volatile IPO stories in market history.
Company raised $86 billion in the listing at a valuation above $2 trillion. Briefly more valuable than Amazon at its peak. Now sitting just above the listing price with a market cap that has been cut roughly in half from the high.
Why SpaceX Stock Is Moving Lower
Two things mainly.
First is valuation. SpaceX is still growing fast but it is also still losing money. Company that is unprofitable trading at a multi-trillion dollar valuation requires investors to believe in a very specific version of the future playing out on a very specific timeline. When that belief gets questioned even slightly the math on current prices becomes hard to defend.
Second is supply. Early investors and insiders eventually gain the ability to sell shares as lockup periods expire or restrictions lift. More shares available for trading means more potential sellers. When supply increases without a matching increase in demand prices come under pressure. Classic mechanics for any IPO that had a massive first day pop followed by retail enthusiasm.
SpaceX bonds issued after the IPO have also weakened. Bond prices falling alongside stock price is a broader signal that investor confidence in the company’s overall financial picture is getting tested not just equity sentiment.
SpaceX Valuation Remains Massive Despite the Decline
Worth keeping perspective. SpaceX at $135 per share is still valued at roughly what the IPO priced it at. Company raised $86 billion at that valuation. Institutional investors who bought at the offering are roughly flat.
Pain is concentrated in people who bought after the first day pop. Anyone who paid between $150 and $225 in the weeks after listing is sitting on meaningful losses. That is where the $1 trillion in erased value comes from. Not from the IPO itself but from the peak that formed immediately after.
Starship Test Flight Could Be the Next Catalyst for SpaceX Stock
SpaceX has Starship test flight 13 scheduled with the launch window opening Thursday evening. Every successful Starship test is meaningful for the long term investment case.
Starship is designed to be fully reusable. Lower launch costs, higher payload capacity, broader applications. If it achieves what the design promises it changes the economics of space access and opens possibilities like orbital AI data centers that Musk has discussed publicly.
Problem is Starship has had a long development timeline with multiple test failures and delays. Markets used to reward the ambition on announcement. Now they want to see consistent successful tests before bidding the stock back up.
Successful test Thursday would give bulls something concrete to point to. Would not fix the valuation math overnight but would demonstrate technical progress and remind investors why the long term case exists.
Failure or anomaly would add to the recent negative momentum at a moment when the stock is sitting right on its IPO price with very little cushion. Timing of the test matters as much as the outcome given where the stock is trading right now.
The upcoming Starship test flight is expected to be one of the most important events for SpaceX investors this month.