No rocket launch. New stock bottom. Both happened Thursday. SpaceX IPO price is now trading below its initial price and the one catalyst that could have helped got cancelled before it left the ground.
SpaceX Stock Hits a New All-Time Low
SpaceX stock price fell another 3% on Thursday, closing at $131 and marking its first close below the company’s IPO price.
From the $225 peak to $131 close is a 42% decline. More than $1 trillion in market value gone. Company that briefly crossed $3 trillion in market cap is now sitting around $1.7 trillion. Still an enormous number in absolute terms. But the direction has been consistently downward since the first week of trading.
Five straight losing sessions is not a signal of panic necessarily. It is a signal that buyers are not showing up with conviction at any price level between $225 and $131. Each bounce has gotten sold. Each recovery attempt has failed. Stock has been in an orderly but persistent decline since the peak.
Starship Test Flight Scrubbed Amid SpaceX Stock Decline
SpaceX scrubbed Starship test flight 13 Thursday due to an issue with the booster. No new launch date announced. Just grounded until the problem gets resolved and another window opens.
The planned mission was significant. Full booster ascent. Stage separation. Landing attempt. Deployment of 20 next generation Starlink V3 satellites. Upper stage reigniting a Raptor engine in space before splashing down in the Indian Ocean. A lot of technical milestones packed into one test.
None of it happened. Stock market graded that in real time with another 3% decline.
Starship is the core of why SpaceX’s long term valuation case makes sense. Fully reusable launch system that dramatically lowers the cost of getting to orbit. If Starship works as designed it changes the economics of satellite launches, cargo missions, and eventually the orbital AI data center concept Musk has discussed. Frequent low cost launches at scale is what justifies the multi-trillion dollar ambition.
Every successful test is a proof point. Every delay is a question mark. Markets are not patient with question marks when the stock is already in a sustained downtrend.
Why Starship Launch Delays Are Common
Worth stating the obvious. Rocket development involves delays. Starship flight 12 was also delayed before eventually launching in May. Every complex aerospace program has scrubs. Technical problems get found during final checks specifically because the pre-launch process is designed to catch them. Better on the pad than in flight.
SpaceX has an extraordinary track record of eventually solving technical problems and launching successfully. Falcon 9 is the most reliably launched rocket in history after years of development and iteration. Starship will get there too almost certainly.
Problem is the stock market does not evaluate SpaceX on aerospace engineering timelines. It evaluates on investor expectation timelines. When a scrubbed test comes during five straight down sessions and the stock is sitting below IPO price the market assigns its own grade and it is not generous.
What Could Help SpaceX Stock Recover
Successful Starship launch when it eventually gets rescheduled. That gives investors a concrete demonstration of progress toward the system that underpins the whole long term case.
Better than expected earnings in some future quarter showing revenue accelerating and losses narrowing. Company is still unprofitable and trading at a valuation that requires believing in Musk’s revenue targets. Actual financial progress toward profitability changes the conversation.
Broader market stabilization in chip and tech stocks removing the sector wide headwind that has been dragging growth names lower.
None of those things happened Thursday. Starship got scrubbed. Stock hit a new low. Rest of tech was mixed. Nothing positive to point to for SpaceX bulls in a difficult session.
Next launch window and the date it gets rescheduled to will be closely watched. How the stock trades in the meantime around the $131 close will show whether buyers finally see value at IPO price levels or whether the selling continues further below.
A successful Starship launch could significantly improve investor sentiment surrounding SpaceX stock in the coming weeks.