Nine straight nights of US strikes on Iran. Oil above $90 for Brent. And futures are basically flat Monday morning. Market is either desensitized or looking past the geopolitics toward what comes Wednesday with Alphabet and Tesla.
Dow Futures Hold Steady Despite Iran Escalation
S&P 500 futures up 0.2%. Nasdaq futures up 0.5%. Dow futures near flat. Given what happened over the weekend that is a calmer reaction than many expected.
Last week was bad. S&P 500 lost 1.6% for the week. Nasdaq tumbled 2.9%. Dow slipped 0.9%. Chip selloff gathered momentum. AI trade got knocked around. Netflix fell 9% after hours. IBM crashed 25%. Not a great week by any measure.
Monday morning futures suggest traders are not panicking further despite the oil move and continued Iran escalation. Either markets have priced in the geopolitical risk already or the focus is shifting toward earnings which could either validate or challenge the AI trade narrative.
Overseas was mixed. South Korea Kospi fell 0.8%. Kosdaq slid 1.8%. European futures pointed to a quiet open. Nothing dramatic in either direction outside the US.
Brent Crude Oil Surges Above $90 Following Iran Strikes
US military launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran over the weekend. Operations aimed at limiting Tehran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil reacted fast. WTI jumped more than 3% to trade above $85 a barrel. Brent crude climbed past $91. Both well above where they were a week ago.
$90 Brent is a meaningful threshold. Energy at that level starts feeding through to transport costs, manufacturing costs, and household energy bills in ways that show up in inflation data within a few months. June CPI came in at 3.5% below expectations. That soft reading becomes harder to repeat if oil stays above $90 through July and August.
Fed was already divided on whether another rate hike is needed this year. Oil sitting above $90 makes the hawkish case stronger and the dovish case weaker. That tension will be in the background of every earnings call and every economic data release over the next several weeks.
Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel Earnings Take Center Stage
Alphabet and Tesla both report after the close Wednesday. Intel follows Thursday.
Each matters for different reasons.
Alphabet is the cleanest read on whether AI is actually generating revenue for the companies investing heavily in it. Search advertising, cloud growth, YouTube performance. If Alphabet shows AI features driving meaningful revenue acceleration it validates the whole thesis that chip spending translates into business results.
Tesla has a different kind of pressure. Stock has been volatile. Investors want clarity on vehicle demand, margin trends, and whether the energy storage business is growing fast enough to matter. Musk’s attention being split across multiple companies is an ongoing concern for some shareholders.
Intel has something to prove after falling 13% last week during the chip selloff. Results and guidance from Intel will either help stabilize the semiconductor sector or add another leg to the decline. Given how badly chips have been hit recently a better than expected Intel result could provide meaningful relief.
Can Dow Jones Futures Continue Higher This Week?
Last week raised serious questions about whether the AI trade can hold up under valuation pressure. TSMC had record earnings and sold off anyway. IBM crashed on mainframe weakness. Netflix disappointed on guidance. Chips fell broadly despite strong underlying demand.
This week answers some of those questions with data from companies at the center of the AI story. If Alphabet shows AI revenue accelerating and Tesla delivers solid results the mood shifts. Investors have a reason to believe premium valuations are justified.
If results disappoint or guidance comes in soft the valuation concern that drove last week’s selling gets confirmed. Stocks that ran 200% in a year on AI enthusiasm need earnings that justify those moves. This week is when some of that justification either shows up or does not.
Oil above $90 adds a macro overlay to everything. Good earnings in a week where energy costs are accelerating creates a mixed signal. Markets will have to decide whether strong corporate profits or sticky inflation from high oil prices is the more important variable for the second half of 2026.